Macroeconomics /
Blanchard, Olivier
Macroeconomics / Olivier Blanchard. - 4th ed. - Upper Saddle River, N.J. : Pearson Prentice Hall, c2006. - xxiv, 587, [35] p. : ill. (some col.) ; 26 cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
A Tour of the World -- The United States -- Is Unemployment Too Low? -- Is the Stock Market Too High? -- Why Has Growth Slowed Down? -- Why Has Wage Inequality Increased? -- The European Union -- How to Reduce High Unemployment? -- What Will the Euro Do for Europe? -- Japan and East Asia -- Why Has Japan Done So Poorly in the 1990s? -- What Was the Cause of the Asian Crisis of 1997? -- Looking Ahead -- Where to Find the Numbers -- A Tour of the Book -- Aggregate Output -- GDP, Value Added, and Income -- Nominal and Real GDP -- The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables -- The Unemployment Rate -- The Inflation Rate -- A Road Map -- A Tour of the Book -- The Construction of Real GDP, and Chain-Type Indexes -- The Core -- The Short Run -- The Goods Market -- The Composition of GDP -- The Demand for Goods -- Consumption (C) -- Investment (I) -- Government Spending (G) -- The Determination of Equilibrium Output -- Using Algebra -- Using a Graph -- Using Words -- How Long Does It Take for Output to Adjust? -- Investment Equals Saving: An Alternative Way of Thinking About Goods-Market Equilibrium -- Is the Government Omnipotent? A Warning -- Financial Markets -- The Demand for Money -- Money Demand and the Interest Rate: The Evidence -- The Determination of the Interest Rate: I -- Money Demand, Money Supply, and the Equilibrium Interest Rate -- Monetary Policy and Open Market Operations -- The Determination of Interest Rates: II -- What Banks Do -- The Supply and Demand for Central Bank Money -- Two Alternative Ways of Looking at the Equilibrium -- Open Market Operations Revisited -- Goods and Financial Markets: The IS-LM Model -- The Goods Market and the IS Relation -- Investment, Sales, and the Interest Rate -- The IS Curve -- Shifts in the IS Curve -- Financial Markets and the LM Relation -- Real Money, Real Income, and the Interest Rate -- The LM Curve -- Shifts in the LM Curve -- The IS-LM Model: Exercises -- Fiscal Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate -- Monetary Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate -- Using a Policy Mix -- Adding Dynamics -- Does the IS-LM Model Actually Capture What Happens in the Economy? -- The Medium Run -- The Labor Market -- A Tour of the Labor Market -- The Large Flows of Workers -- Differences across Workers -- Movements in Unemployment -- Wage Determination -- Bargaining -- Efficiency Wages -- Wages and Unemployment -- Price Determination -- The Natural Rate of Unemployment -- The Wage Setting Relation -- The Price Setting Relation -- Lquilibrium Real Wages, Employment, and Unemployment -- From Unemployment to Output -- Where We Go From Here -- Putting All Markets Together. The AS-AD Model -- Aggregate Supply -- The Derivation of the Aggregate Supply Relation -- Aggregate Demand -- Equilibrium Output in the Short and the Medium Rum -- The Dynamics of Output and the Price Level -- The Effects of a Monetary Expansion -- The Dynamics of Adjustment -- Looking, Behind the Scene -- The Neutrality of Money -- A Decrease in the Budget Deficit -- The Budget Deficit, Output, and the Interest Rate -- Budget Deficits, Output, and Investment -- Changes in the Price of Oil -- Effects on the Natural Rate of Unemployment -- The Dynamics of Adjustment -- Conclusions -- The Short Run versus the Medium Run -- Shocks and Propagation Mechanisms -- Output, Unemployment, and Inflation -- The Phillips Curve -- Inflation, Expected Inflation, and Unemployment -- The Phillips Curve -- The Early Incarnation -- Mutations -- Back to the Natural Rate of Unemployment -- A Summary and Many Warnings -- The Inflation Process and the Phillips Curve -- Differences in the Natural Rate Across Countries -- Variations in the Natural Rate Over Time -- The Limits of Our Understanding -- From the Aggregate Supply Relation to the Phillips Curve -- Inflation, Activity, and Money Growth -- Output, Unemployment, and Inflation -- Okun's Law: Output Growth and Changes in Unemployment -- The Phillips Curve: Unemployment and the Change in Inflation -- The Aggregate Demand Relation: Money, Growth, Inflation, and Output Growth -- The Medium Run -- Disinflation: A First Pass -- How Much Unemployment? And for How Long? -- Working Out the Required Path of Money Growth -- Expectations, Credibility, and Nominal Contracts -- Expectations and Credibility: The Lucas Critique -- Nominal Rigidities and Contracts -- The U.S. Disinflation, 1979 to 1985 -- The Long Run -- The Facts of Growth -- Growth in Rich Countries Since 1950 -- A Broader Look Across Time and Space -- Looking Across Two Millennia -- Looking Across Countries -- Thinking About Growth: A Primer -- The Aggregate Production Function -- The Sources of Growth -- Saving, Capital Accumulation, and Output -- Interactions between Output and Capital -- The Effects of Capital on Output -- The Effects of Output on Capital Accumulation -- Implications of Alternative Saving Rates -- Dynamics of Capital and Output -- Steady-State Capital and Output -- The Saving Rate and Output -- The Saving Rate and the Golden Rule -- Getting a Sense of Magnitudes -- The Effects of the Saving Rate on Steady-State Output -- The Dynamic Effects of an Increase in the Saving Rate -- The U.S. Saving Rate and the Golden Rule -- Physical versus Human Capital -- Extending the Production Function -- Human Capital, Physical Capital, and Output -- Endogenous Growth -- Technological Progress and Growth -- Technological Progress and the Rate of Growth -- Technological Progress and the Production Function -- Interactions between Output and Capital -- Dynamics of Capital and Output -- The Effects of the Saving Rate -- The Determinants of Technological Progress -- The Fertility of the Research Process -- The Appropriability of Research Results -- The Facts of Growth Revisited -- Capital Accumulation versus Technological Progress -- Why Has Technological Progress Slowed Since the Mid-1970s? -- Epilogue: The Secrets of Growth -- Constructing a Measure of Technological Progress -- Technological Progress, Wages, and Unemployment -- Productivity, Output, and Unemployment in the Short Run -- Technological Progress, Aggregate Supply, and Aggregate Demand -- The Empirical Evidence -- Productivity and the Natural Rate of Unemployment -- Price Setting and Wage Setting Revisited -- The Natural Rate of Unemployment -- The Empirical Evidence -- Technological Progress and Distribution Effects -- The Increase in Wage Inequality -- The Causes of Increased Wage Inequality -- Extensions -- Expectations -- Expectations: The Basic Tools -- Nominal versus Real Interest Rates -- Computing the Real Interest Rate -- Nominal and Real Interest Rates in the United States Since 1978 -- Expected Present Discounted Values -- Computing Expected Present Discounted Values -- Using Present Values: Examples -- Nominal versus Real Interest Rates, and Present Values -- Nominal and Real Interest Rates, and the IS-LM Model -- Money Growth, Inflation, and Nominal and Real Interest Rates -- Nominal and Real Interest Rates in the Short Run -- Nominal and Real Interest Rates in the Medium Run -- From the Short to the Medium Run -- Evidence on the Fisher Hypothesis -- Chapter 1. 1-1. 1-2. 1-3. 1-4. Appendix. Chapter 2. 2-1. 2-2. 2-3. Appendix. Chapter 3. 3-1. 3-2. 3-3. 3-4. 3-5. Chapter 4. 4-1. 4-2. 4-3. Chapter 5. 5-1. 5-2. 5-3. 5-4. 5-5. 5-6. Chapter 6. 6-1. 6-2. 6-3. 6-4. 6-5. 6-6. Chapter 7. 7-1. 7-2. 7-3. 7-4. 7-5. 7-6. 7-7. Chapter 8. 8-1. 8-2. 8-3. Appendix. Chapter 9. 9-1. 9-2. 9-3. 9-4. 9-5. Chapter 10. 10-1. 10-2. 10-3. Chapter 11. 11-1. 11-2. 11-3. 11-4. Chapter 12. 12-1. 12-2. 12-3. 12-4. Appendix. Chapter 13. 13-1. 13-2. 13-3. Chapter 14. 14-1. 14-2. 14-3. 14-4. Deriving the Expected Present Discounted Value Using Real or Nominal Interest Rates -- Financial Markets and Expectations -- Bond Prices and the Yield Curve -- Bond Prices as Present Values -- Arbitrage and Bond Prices -- From Bond Prices to Bond Yields -- The Yield Curve and Economic Activity -- The Stock Market and Movements in Stock Prices -- Stock Prices as Present Values -- The Stock Market and Economic Activity -- Bubbles, Fads, and Stock Prices -- Arbitrage and Stock Prices -- Expectations, Consumption, and Investment -- Consumption -- The Very Foresighted Consumer -- Toward A More Realistic Description -- Putting Things Together: Current Income, Expectations, and Consumption -- Investment -- Investment and Expectations of Profit -- A Convenient Special Case -- Current versus Expected Profit -- Profit and Sales -- The Volatility of Consumption and Investment -- Derivation of the Expected Present Value of Profits when Future Profits and Interest Rates Are Expected to Be the Same as Today -- Expectations, Output, and Policy -- Expectations and Decisions: Taking Stock -- Expectations and the IS Relation -- The LM Relation Revisited -- Monetary Policy, Expectations, and Output -- Deficit Reduction, Expectations, and Output -- The Role of Expectations About the Future -- Back to the Current Period -- The Open Economy -- Openness in Goods and Financial Markets -- Openness in Goods Markets -- The Choice between Domestic and Foreign Goods -- Nominal Exchange Rates -- Real Exchange Rates -- Openness in Financial Markets -- The Balance of Payments -- The Choice between Domestic and Foreign Assets -- Conclusions and a Look Ahead -- The Goods Market in an Open Economy -- The IS Relation in the Open Economy -- The Demand for Domestic Goods -- The Determinants of the Demand for Domestic Goods -- Equilibrium Output and the Trade Balance -- Increases in Demand, Domestic or Foreign -- Increases in Domestic Demand -- Increases in Foreign Demand -- Games That Countries Play -- Depreciation, the Trade Balance, and Output -- Depreciation and the Trade Balance: The Marshall--Lerner Condition -- The Effects of a Depreciation -- Combining Exchange-Rate and Fiscal Policies -- Looking at Dynamics: The J-Curve -- Saving, Investment, and Trade Deficits -- Derivation of the Marshall--Lerner Condition -- Output, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate -- Equilibrium in the Goods Market -- Equilibrium in Financial Markets -- Money versus Bonds -- Domestic Bonds versus Foreign Bonds -- Putting Goods and Financial Markets Together -- The Effects of Policy in an Open Economy -- The Effects of Fiscal Policy in an Open Economy -- The Effects of Monetary Policy in an Open Economy -- Fixed Exchange Rates -- Pegs, Crawling Pegs, Bands, the EMS, and the Euro -- Pegging the Exchange Rate, and Monetary Control -- Fiscal Policy under Fixed Exchange Rates -- Fixed Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and Capital Mobility -- Exchange Rates: Adjustments, Crises, and Regimes -- Fixed Exchange Rates and The Adjustment of the Real Exchange Rate -- Aggregate Demand Under Fixed Exchange Rates -- Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply -- Exchange Rate Crises -- Crises in the European Monetary System -- Choosing Between Exchange Rate Regimes -- The Problems of Flexible Exchange Rates -- The Limited Costs of Fixed Exchange Rates -- The Benefits of Fixed Exchange Rates -- Exchange Rate Movements -- Pathologies -- Pathologies I: High Unemployment -- The Great Depression -- The Fall in Spending -- The Contraction in Nominal Money -- The Adverse Effects of Deflation -- The Recovery -- Unemployment in Europe -- Labor Market Rigidities -- Hysteresis -- Eurosclerosis or Hysteresis? -- Conclusions -- Pathologies II: High Inflation -- Budget Deficits and Money Creation -- Inflation and Real Money Balances -- Deficits, Seignorage, and Inflation -- The Case of Constant Money Growth -- Dynamics and Increasing Inflation -- Hyperinflations and Economic Activity -- How Do Hyperinflations End? -- The Elements of a Stabilization Program -- Can Stabilization Programs Fail? -- The Costs of Stabilization -- Conclusions -- Pathologies III: Transition in Eastern Europe, and the Asian Crisis -- Transition in Eastern Europe -- By How Much Has Output Declined? -- Why Did Output Decline? -- Why Have Some Countries Recovered and Not Others? -- The Asian Crisis -- Why the Crisis? -- Why Did the Exchange Rate Crisis Lead to a Recession? -- What Are the Lessons from the Asian Crisis? -- Back to Policy -- Should Policy Makers Be Restrained? -- Uncertainty and Policy -- How Much Do Macroeconomists Actually Know? -- Should Uncertainty Lead Policy Makers to Do Less? -- Uncertainty and Restraints on Policy Makers -- Expectations and Policy -- Hijackings and Negotiations -- Inflation and Unemployment Revisited -- Establishing Credibility -- Time Consistency and Restraints on Policy Makers -- Politics and Policy -- Games between Policy Makers and Voters -- Games between Policy Makers -- Back to the Balanced-Budget Amendment -- Monetary Policy: A Summing Up -- The Optimal Inflation Rate -- The Costs of Inflation -- The Benefits of Inflation -- The Optimal Inflation Rate: The Current Debate -- The Design of Monetary Policy -- Money Growth and Inflation Revisited -- From Money to Monetary Aggregates -- Taylor's Rule -- The Fed in Action -- The Mandate of the Fed -- The Organization of the Fed -- The Instruments of Monetary Policy -- The Practice of Policy -- Could the Conduct of U.S. Monetary Policy Be Improved? -- Fiscal Policy. A Summing Up -- The Government Budget Constraint -- Current versus Future Taxes -- Debt and Primary Surpluses -- The Evolution of the Debt-to-GDP Ratio -- Four Issues in Fiscal Policy -- Ricardian Equivalence -- Deficits, Output Stabilization, and the Cyclically Adjusted Deficit -- Wars and Deficits -- The Dangers of Very High Debt -- The U.S. Budget Deficit -- The Budget Outlook Until 2009 -- Surpluses and the Low U.S. Saving Rate -- Surpluses and The Aging of America -- Epilogue: The Story of Macroeconomics -- Keynes and the Great Depression -- The Neoclassical Synthesis -- Progress on All Fronts -- Keynesians versus Monetarists -- The Rational Expectations Critique -- The Three Implications of Rational Expectations -- The Integration of Rational Expectations -- Current Developments -- New Classical Economics and Real Business Cycle Theory -- New Keynesian Economics -- New Growth Theory -- Common Beliefs -- An Introduction to National Income and Product Accounts -- A Math Refresher -- An Introduction to Econometrics. Appendix. Chapter 15. 15-1. 15-2. 15-3. Appendix. Chapter 16. 16-1. 16-2. 16-3. Appendix. Chapter 17. 17-1. 17-2. 17-3. Chapter 18. 18-1. 18-2. 18-3. Chapter 19. 19-1. 19-2. 19-3. 19-4. 19-5. 19-6. Appendix. Chapter 20. 20-1. 20-2. 20-3. 20-4. 20-5. Appendix. Chapter 21. 21-1. 21-2. 21-3. Appendix. Chapter 22. 22-1. 22-2. 22-3. Chapter 23. 23-1. 23-2. 23-3. 23-4. 23-5. Chapter 24. 24-1. 24-2. Chapter 25. 25-1. 25-2. 25-3. Chapter 26. 26-1. 26-2. 26-3. Chapter 27. 27-1. 27-2. 27-3. Chapter 28. 28-1. 28-2. 28-3. 28-4. 28-5. Appendix 1. Appendix 2. Appendix 3.
0131860267
2005018368
Macroeconomics.
Macro-economie.
HB172.5 / .B573 2006
339
Macroeconomics / Olivier Blanchard. - 4th ed. - Upper Saddle River, N.J. : Pearson Prentice Hall, c2006. - xxiv, 587, [35] p. : ill. (some col.) ; 26 cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
A Tour of the World -- The United States -- Is Unemployment Too Low? -- Is the Stock Market Too High? -- Why Has Growth Slowed Down? -- Why Has Wage Inequality Increased? -- The European Union -- How to Reduce High Unemployment? -- What Will the Euro Do for Europe? -- Japan and East Asia -- Why Has Japan Done So Poorly in the 1990s? -- What Was the Cause of the Asian Crisis of 1997? -- Looking Ahead -- Where to Find the Numbers -- A Tour of the Book -- Aggregate Output -- GDP, Value Added, and Income -- Nominal and Real GDP -- The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables -- The Unemployment Rate -- The Inflation Rate -- A Road Map -- A Tour of the Book -- The Construction of Real GDP, and Chain-Type Indexes -- The Core -- The Short Run -- The Goods Market -- The Composition of GDP -- The Demand for Goods -- Consumption (C) -- Investment (I) -- Government Spending (G) -- The Determination of Equilibrium Output -- Using Algebra -- Using a Graph -- Using Words -- How Long Does It Take for Output to Adjust? -- Investment Equals Saving: An Alternative Way of Thinking About Goods-Market Equilibrium -- Is the Government Omnipotent? A Warning -- Financial Markets -- The Demand for Money -- Money Demand and the Interest Rate: The Evidence -- The Determination of the Interest Rate: I -- Money Demand, Money Supply, and the Equilibrium Interest Rate -- Monetary Policy and Open Market Operations -- The Determination of Interest Rates: II -- What Banks Do -- The Supply and Demand for Central Bank Money -- Two Alternative Ways of Looking at the Equilibrium -- Open Market Operations Revisited -- Goods and Financial Markets: The IS-LM Model -- The Goods Market and the IS Relation -- Investment, Sales, and the Interest Rate -- The IS Curve -- Shifts in the IS Curve -- Financial Markets and the LM Relation -- Real Money, Real Income, and the Interest Rate -- The LM Curve -- Shifts in the LM Curve -- The IS-LM Model: Exercises -- Fiscal Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate -- Monetary Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate -- Using a Policy Mix -- Adding Dynamics -- Does the IS-LM Model Actually Capture What Happens in the Economy? -- The Medium Run -- The Labor Market -- A Tour of the Labor Market -- The Large Flows of Workers -- Differences across Workers -- Movements in Unemployment -- Wage Determination -- Bargaining -- Efficiency Wages -- Wages and Unemployment -- Price Determination -- The Natural Rate of Unemployment -- The Wage Setting Relation -- The Price Setting Relation -- Lquilibrium Real Wages, Employment, and Unemployment -- From Unemployment to Output -- Where We Go From Here -- Putting All Markets Together. The AS-AD Model -- Aggregate Supply -- The Derivation of the Aggregate Supply Relation -- Aggregate Demand -- Equilibrium Output in the Short and the Medium Rum -- The Dynamics of Output and the Price Level -- The Effects of a Monetary Expansion -- The Dynamics of Adjustment -- Looking, Behind the Scene -- The Neutrality of Money -- A Decrease in the Budget Deficit -- The Budget Deficit, Output, and the Interest Rate -- Budget Deficits, Output, and Investment -- Changes in the Price of Oil -- Effects on the Natural Rate of Unemployment -- The Dynamics of Adjustment -- Conclusions -- The Short Run versus the Medium Run -- Shocks and Propagation Mechanisms -- Output, Unemployment, and Inflation -- The Phillips Curve -- Inflation, Expected Inflation, and Unemployment -- The Phillips Curve -- The Early Incarnation -- Mutations -- Back to the Natural Rate of Unemployment -- A Summary and Many Warnings -- The Inflation Process and the Phillips Curve -- Differences in the Natural Rate Across Countries -- Variations in the Natural Rate Over Time -- The Limits of Our Understanding -- From the Aggregate Supply Relation to the Phillips Curve -- Inflation, Activity, and Money Growth -- Output, Unemployment, and Inflation -- Okun's Law: Output Growth and Changes in Unemployment -- The Phillips Curve: Unemployment and the Change in Inflation -- The Aggregate Demand Relation: Money, Growth, Inflation, and Output Growth -- The Medium Run -- Disinflation: A First Pass -- How Much Unemployment? And for How Long? -- Working Out the Required Path of Money Growth -- Expectations, Credibility, and Nominal Contracts -- Expectations and Credibility: The Lucas Critique -- Nominal Rigidities and Contracts -- The U.S. Disinflation, 1979 to 1985 -- The Long Run -- The Facts of Growth -- Growth in Rich Countries Since 1950 -- A Broader Look Across Time and Space -- Looking Across Two Millennia -- Looking Across Countries -- Thinking About Growth: A Primer -- The Aggregate Production Function -- The Sources of Growth -- Saving, Capital Accumulation, and Output -- Interactions between Output and Capital -- The Effects of Capital on Output -- The Effects of Output on Capital Accumulation -- Implications of Alternative Saving Rates -- Dynamics of Capital and Output -- Steady-State Capital and Output -- The Saving Rate and Output -- The Saving Rate and the Golden Rule -- Getting a Sense of Magnitudes -- The Effects of the Saving Rate on Steady-State Output -- The Dynamic Effects of an Increase in the Saving Rate -- The U.S. Saving Rate and the Golden Rule -- Physical versus Human Capital -- Extending the Production Function -- Human Capital, Physical Capital, and Output -- Endogenous Growth -- Technological Progress and Growth -- Technological Progress and the Rate of Growth -- Technological Progress and the Production Function -- Interactions between Output and Capital -- Dynamics of Capital and Output -- The Effects of the Saving Rate -- The Determinants of Technological Progress -- The Fertility of the Research Process -- The Appropriability of Research Results -- The Facts of Growth Revisited -- Capital Accumulation versus Technological Progress -- Why Has Technological Progress Slowed Since the Mid-1970s? -- Epilogue: The Secrets of Growth -- Constructing a Measure of Technological Progress -- Technological Progress, Wages, and Unemployment -- Productivity, Output, and Unemployment in the Short Run -- Technological Progress, Aggregate Supply, and Aggregate Demand -- The Empirical Evidence -- Productivity and the Natural Rate of Unemployment -- Price Setting and Wage Setting Revisited -- The Natural Rate of Unemployment -- The Empirical Evidence -- Technological Progress and Distribution Effects -- The Increase in Wage Inequality -- The Causes of Increased Wage Inequality -- Extensions -- Expectations -- Expectations: The Basic Tools -- Nominal versus Real Interest Rates -- Computing the Real Interest Rate -- Nominal and Real Interest Rates in the United States Since 1978 -- Expected Present Discounted Values -- Computing Expected Present Discounted Values -- Using Present Values: Examples -- Nominal versus Real Interest Rates, and Present Values -- Nominal and Real Interest Rates, and the IS-LM Model -- Money Growth, Inflation, and Nominal and Real Interest Rates -- Nominal and Real Interest Rates in the Short Run -- Nominal and Real Interest Rates in the Medium Run -- From the Short to the Medium Run -- Evidence on the Fisher Hypothesis -- Chapter 1. 1-1. 1-2. 1-3. 1-4. Appendix. Chapter 2. 2-1. 2-2. 2-3. Appendix. Chapter 3. 3-1. 3-2. 3-3. 3-4. 3-5. Chapter 4. 4-1. 4-2. 4-3. Chapter 5. 5-1. 5-2. 5-3. 5-4. 5-5. 5-6. Chapter 6. 6-1. 6-2. 6-3. 6-4. 6-5. 6-6. Chapter 7. 7-1. 7-2. 7-3. 7-4. 7-5. 7-6. 7-7. Chapter 8. 8-1. 8-2. 8-3. Appendix. Chapter 9. 9-1. 9-2. 9-3. 9-4. 9-5. Chapter 10. 10-1. 10-2. 10-3. Chapter 11. 11-1. 11-2. 11-3. 11-4. Chapter 12. 12-1. 12-2. 12-3. 12-4. Appendix. Chapter 13. 13-1. 13-2. 13-3. Chapter 14. 14-1. 14-2. 14-3. 14-4. Deriving the Expected Present Discounted Value Using Real or Nominal Interest Rates -- Financial Markets and Expectations -- Bond Prices and the Yield Curve -- Bond Prices as Present Values -- Arbitrage and Bond Prices -- From Bond Prices to Bond Yields -- The Yield Curve and Economic Activity -- The Stock Market and Movements in Stock Prices -- Stock Prices as Present Values -- The Stock Market and Economic Activity -- Bubbles, Fads, and Stock Prices -- Arbitrage and Stock Prices -- Expectations, Consumption, and Investment -- Consumption -- The Very Foresighted Consumer -- Toward A More Realistic Description -- Putting Things Together: Current Income, Expectations, and Consumption -- Investment -- Investment and Expectations of Profit -- A Convenient Special Case -- Current versus Expected Profit -- Profit and Sales -- The Volatility of Consumption and Investment -- Derivation of the Expected Present Value of Profits when Future Profits and Interest Rates Are Expected to Be the Same as Today -- Expectations, Output, and Policy -- Expectations and Decisions: Taking Stock -- Expectations and the IS Relation -- The LM Relation Revisited -- Monetary Policy, Expectations, and Output -- Deficit Reduction, Expectations, and Output -- The Role of Expectations About the Future -- Back to the Current Period -- The Open Economy -- Openness in Goods and Financial Markets -- Openness in Goods Markets -- The Choice between Domestic and Foreign Goods -- Nominal Exchange Rates -- Real Exchange Rates -- Openness in Financial Markets -- The Balance of Payments -- The Choice between Domestic and Foreign Assets -- Conclusions and a Look Ahead -- The Goods Market in an Open Economy -- The IS Relation in the Open Economy -- The Demand for Domestic Goods -- The Determinants of the Demand for Domestic Goods -- Equilibrium Output and the Trade Balance -- Increases in Demand, Domestic or Foreign -- Increases in Domestic Demand -- Increases in Foreign Demand -- Games That Countries Play -- Depreciation, the Trade Balance, and Output -- Depreciation and the Trade Balance: The Marshall--Lerner Condition -- The Effects of a Depreciation -- Combining Exchange-Rate and Fiscal Policies -- Looking at Dynamics: The J-Curve -- Saving, Investment, and Trade Deficits -- Derivation of the Marshall--Lerner Condition -- Output, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate -- Equilibrium in the Goods Market -- Equilibrium in Financial Markets -- Money versus Bonds -- Domestic Bonds versus Foreign Bonds -- Putting Goods and Financial Markets Together -- The Effects of Policy in an Open Economy -- The Effects of Fiscal Policy in an Open Economy -- The Effects of Monetary Policy in an Open Economy -- Fixed Exchange Rates -- Pegs, Crawling Pegs, Bands, the EMS, and the Euro -- Pegging the Exchange Rate, and Monetary Control -- Fiscal Policy under Fixed Exchange Rates -- Fixed Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and Capital Mobility -- Exchange Rates: Adjustments, Crises, and Regimes -- Fixed Exchange Rates and The Adjustment of the Real Exchange Rate -- Aggregate Demand Under Fixed Exchange Rates -- Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply -- Exchange Rate Crises -- Crises in the European Monetary System -- Choosing Between Exchange Rate Regimes -- The Problems of Flexible Exchange Rates -- The Limited Costs of Fixed Exchange Rates -- The Benefits of Fixed Exchange Rates -- Exchange Rate Movements -- Pathologies -- Pathologies I: High Unemployment -- The Great Depression -- The Fall in Spending -- The Contraction in Nominal Money -- The Adverse Effects of Deflation -- The Recovery -- Unemployment in Europe -- Labor Market Rigidities -- Hysteresis -- Eurosclerosis or Hysteresis? -- Conclusions -- Pathologies II: High Inflation -- Budget Deficits and Money Creation -- Inflation and Real Money Balances -- Deficits, Seignorage, and Inflation -- The Case of Constant Money Growth -- Dynamics and Increasing Inflation -- Hyperinflations and Economic Activity -- How Do Hyperinflations End? -- The Elements of a Stabilization Program -- Can Stabilization Programs Fail? -- The Costs of Stabilization -- Conclusions -- Pathologies III: Transition in Eastern Europe, and the Asian Crisis -- Transition in Eastern Europe -- By How Much Has Output Declined? -- Why Did Output Decline? -- Why Have Some Countries Recovered and Not Others? -- The Asian Crisis -- Why the Crisis? -- Why Did the Exchange Rate Crisis Lead to a Recession? -- What Are the Lessons from the Asian Crisis? -- Back to Policy -- Should Policy Makers Be Restrained? -- Uncertainty and Policy -- How Much Do Macroeconomists Actually Know? -- Should Uncertainty Lead Policy Makers to Do Less? -- Uncertainty and Restraints on Policy Makers -- Expectations and Policy -- Hijackings and Negotiations -- Inflation and Unemployment Revisited -- Establishing Credibility -- Time Consistency and Restraints on Policy Makers -- Politics and Policy -- Games between Policy Makers and Voters -- Games between Policy Makers -- Back to the Balanced-Budget Amendment -- Monetary Policy: A Summing Up -- The Optimal Inflation Rate -- The Costs of Inflation -- The Benefits of Inflation -- The Optimal Inflation Rate: The Current Debate -- The Design of Monetary Policy -- Money Growth and Inflation Revisited -- From Money to Monetary Aggregates -- Taylor's Rule -- The Fed in Action -- The Mandate of the Fed -- The Organization of the Fed -- The Instruments of Monetary Policy -- The Practice of Policy -- Could the Conduct of U.S. Monetary Policy Be Improved? -- Fiscal Policy. A Summing Up -- The Government Budget Constraint -- Current versus Future Taxes -- Debt and Primary Surpluses -- The Evolution of the Debt-to-GDP Ratio -- Four Issues in Fiscal Policy -- Ricardian Equivalence -- Deficits, Output Stabilization, and the Cyclically Adjusted Deficit -- Wars and Deficits -- The Dangers of Very High Debt -- The U.S. Budget Deficit -- The Budget Outlook Until 2009 -- Surpluses and the Low U.S. Saving Rate -- Surpluses and The Aging of America -- Epilogue: The Story of Macroeconomics -- Keynes and the Great Depression -- The Neoclassical Synthesis -- Progress on All Fronts -- Keynesians versus Monetarists -- The Rational Expectations Critique -- The Three Implications of Rational Expectations -- The Integration of Rational Expectations -- Current Developments -- New Classical Economics and Real Business Cycle Theory -- New Keynesian Economics -- New Growth Theory -- Common Beliefs -- An Introduction to National Income and Product Accounts -- A Math Refresher -- An Introduction to Econometrics. Appendix. Chapter 15. 15-1. 15-2. 15-3. Appendix. Chapter 16. 16-1. 16-2. 16-3. Appendix. Chapter 17. 17-1. 17-2. 17-3. Chapter 18. 18-1. 18-2. 18-3. Chapter 19. 19-1. 19-2. 19-3. 19-4. 19-5. 19-6. Appendix. Chapter 20. 20-1. 20-2. 20-3. 20-4. 20-5. Appendix. Chapter 21. 21-1. 21-2. 21-3. Appendix. Chapter 22. 22-1. 22-2. 22-3. Chapter 23. 23-1. 23-2. 23-3. 23-4. 23-5. Chapter 24. 24-1. 24-2. Chapter 25. 25-1. 25-2. 25-3. Chapter 26. 26-1. 26-2. 26-3. Chapter 27. 27-1. 27-2. 27-3. Chapter 28. 28-1. 28-2. 28-3. 28-4. 28-5. Appendix 1. Appendix 2. Appendix 3.
0131860267
2005018368
Macroeconomics.
Macro-economie.
HB172.5 / .B573 2006
339