Improving Global Health Patterns of Potential Human Progress / Volume 3 Barry B. Hughes, Randal Kuhn, Cecilia M. Peterson, Dale S. Rothman, Jose R. Solorzano

CONTENT List of Boxes List of Figures List of Tables Abbreviations and Acronyms 1. The Story of So Far 2. Understanding Health: Concepts, Relationship, and Dynamics 3. Forecasting Global Health 4. The Current Path as Its Seems to be Unfolding 5. Analysis of Selected Proximate Factors 6.Analysis of Selected Environmental Risk Factors 7. Foreward linkages 8. Broadcasting and Integrating our Perspective 9.The Future of Global Health Appendix Bibliography Forecast Tables: Introduction and Glossary Forecast Tables: Maps of Continents and Subregions Forecast Tables INDEX Author Note

mproving Global Health is the third in a series of volumes—Patterns of Potential Human Progress—inspired by the UN Human Development Reports, the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and other initiatives to improve the global human condition. Using a large-scale computer programme called International Futures (IFs), developed over three decades, and based at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, the book presents the most extensive sets of forecasts on global health—providing and exploring a massive issue database and a wide range of scenarios. This volume builds on the work done by the World Health Organization in its Global Burden of Disease and Comparative Risk Assessment Projects, allowing forecasting of age-, sex-, country-, and cause-specific mortality. Along with exploring possible futures for the health of the world’s population, it also analyzes how varying health outcomes affect broader dimensions of human growth and development. It thus addresses central, policy-relevant questions facing most countries today. The forecasts are long-term, looking 50 years into the future, thereby anticipating the need of the global community to think well beyond the MDGs.